Investment analysis – Commercial space with long-term tenant

Investment data

• Address: Chisinau municipality, Buiucani district, Calea Iesilor street 71/1
• Area: 1,259.53 m², Semi-basement with ramp, commissioning end of 2027
• Purchase price: €3,150,000
• Price/m²: approximately €2,500/m²
• Lease term: 15 years
• Current rent: €12/m²/month (VAT included)
• Estimated annual indexation: +5%
• Premium area: "La Izvor" Park, intense car and pedestrian traffic, easy access, residents with above-average incomes.

Investment advantages

✔ Long-term lease (15 years)

✔ Predictable cash flow

✔ Location in an area with continuous development

✔ Lack of operational depreciation costs specific to an active business

✔ High potential for asset value appreciation

✔ Large commercial spaces with loading ramps and generous parking are very rare in Chisinau

1. Annual rental income

Area: 1,259.53 m²

Rent: €12/m²/month

Monthly income:

1,259.53 × €12 = 15.114 €

Annual income:

15,114 × 12 = 181.372 €

Initial gross yield

€181,372 ÷ €3,150,000 × 100

= 5,76% annually

For a premium commercial property with a stable tenant and a 15-year contract, this yield is considered good and secure.

Investment recovery

€3,150,000 ÷ €181,372

= 17.4 years

However, this calculation does not include the annual indexation of 5%.

Investment recovery with annual increase of 5%

If rent increases annually by approximately 5%, total revenue collected increases rapidly.

Estimated:

• Simple recovery: 17.4 years
• 5% indexed recovery: approximately 13.5 – 14.5 years

Property value evolution

Assuming an average appreciation of 6% annually:

Formula:

Value = 3,150,000 × (1.06)^16

Result:

≈ 7.999.000 €

Rounded:

Estimated value over 16 years: approximately €8 million

Conservative scenario (5%)

3,150,000 × (1.05)^16

≈ 6.865.000 €

Optimistic scenario (8%)

3,150,000 × (1.08)^16

≈ 10.810.000 €

Investment summary

Conclusion

This is an investment oriented towards long-term capital preservation and multiplication, not towards a very high immediate return. At a price of €2,500/m², the asset is purchased close to the lower end of the market for premium retail space in Chisinau, and the existence of a 15-year tenant significantly reduces the investment risk.

Market price analysis of commercial spaces:

If the rent is indexed annually by approximately 5%, and the commercial market in Chisinau continues to grow by 5–6% annually, the investment can generate in 15–16 years:

• over €3 million in rental income collected;
• an asset value of approximately €7–8 million;
• a total cumulative profit (rents + appreciation) that can exceed €7 million.
• from the perspective of commercial real estate investments in Chisinau, this property can be classified as "premium investment (core/core+)"